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11-10-2026 · ST (Sha Tin) · All Weather Track / Turf Model models/HKJC-ML_XGB_NOODDS_REG_v2.bin

Race 1

awt 1200m ⚖ Even pace · Pressure 0.51 racecard ↗
Likely an even, honest paceEarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 4 良駒好友潘頓 · 文家良 · Dr11 Midfield
Strong
🔒
2 1 勤德皆備潘明輝 · 賀賢 · Dr5 Midfield
Strong
🔒
3 5 日日獎霍宏聲 · 方嘉柏 · Dr9 Midfield
Strong
🔒
4 10 喜行艾兆禮 · 廖康銘 · Dr3 Midfield
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 1 is run over the all-weather 1200m at Sha Tin. The model returns a wide-open shape with a neutral pace forecast, so positional advantage is not clearly signalled. 良駒好友 heads the rankings with the highest at around a quarter. The supplied sample shows finishes mostly in the middle of fields, with one ST run a sixth in September, and a mix of HV results at 1000m and 1200m; the provided last-five does not include an ST 1200m win. 勤德皆備 sits second and has shown consistency at ST 1200m and 1400m in the supplied sample, finishing in the top five in four of five runs including a fourth and fifth at this course and trip. 日日獎 is third ranked and most recently finished third at ST 1200m on 27 September, which is its best supplied result after some wide margins in earlier runs at 1400m. 喜行 is ranked fourth and has not posted a top-three finish in the supplied sample; a seventh in ST 1200m C5 on 27 September is its latest effort. 嘉嘉友福, ranked fifth, ran second on 6 September at ST 1200m C5, the closest result in the supplied sample, then sixth on 27 September at the same trip. 大浪園田 ranks sixth but carries the most recent win in the supplied sample, a first-place finish at ST 1200m C5 on 27 September by one and a quarter lengths, though it posted very wide margins in its three preceding runs. The wide-open model shape means no single runner separates clearly.

Race 2

turf 1000m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 3

turf 1200m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 4

awt 1200m ⚖ Even pace · Pressure 0.55 racecard ↗
Likely an even, honest paceEarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 2 致力之城艾道拿 · 大衛希斯 · Dr2 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
2 9 狀元聲價袁幸堯 (-7) · 甘敏斯 · Dr5 TBD
Strong
🔒
3 1 鑽石星空黃寶妮 (-7) · 徐雨石 · Dr6 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
4 8 肯佩斯艾兆禮 · 賀賢 · Dr9 Closer
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 4 is run on the all-weather 1200m at Sha Tin in a contested field of ten, with a neutral pace forecast. 致力之城 holds the top rank with a notably above the rest. The supplied five runs show two wins — a seven-length victory at ST 1200m C3 on 27 September and a four-and-a-half-length win at ST 1200m C4 濕快 on 4 July — as well as a second on two occasions at ST 1000m. That depth of recent supplied form at Sha Tin makes this the clearest anchor in the race. 狀元聲價 is second but carries no supplied form data beyond name, draw and ; no objective comparison with other runners is possible beyond the model ranking itself. 鑽石星空 is third, with a win at ST 1200m C3 on 13 September by one and three-quarter lengths and a close third by one length on 4 October; it has competed consistently at ST 1200m C3 in the supplied sample. The model separates 致力之城 from 鑽石星空 by , though both have supplied winning form. 肯佩斯 is fourth and most recently won at ST 1200m C4 on 13 September by three-quarters of a length, which is a notable supplied result; however the model places it behind the top three. 富心星 ranks fifth, with all provided runs at HV — no ST runs appear in the supplied last five — so direct course comparison is unavailable. 三軍勇將 is sixth; the supplied sample includes a win at ST 1400m C3 on 26 April, but its two most recent runs at ST 1200m C3 yielded a seventh by ten and a half lengths and a sixth.

Race 5

awt 1200m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 6

turf 1200m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 7

turf 1400m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 8

turf 1600m 🐢 Slow pace · Pressure 0.42 racecard ↗
Likely slow early pace (few on-pace types)EarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 11 華麗再贏潘頓 · 沈集成 · Dr3 Midfield
Strong
🔒
2 1 旌採艾兆禮 · 姚本輝 · Dr2 Midfield
Strong
🔒
3 8 同樣世界艾道拿 · 大衛希斯 · Dr4 Closer
Strong
🔒
4 12 富裕君子何澤堯 · 方嘉柏 · Dr10 Closer
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 8 is a turf 1600m contest with a slow pace forecast and a clear-standout model shape. 華麗再贏 leads the rankings and has been active at this exact course and distance: the last five supplied runs include a win at ST 1600m on 13 September, a second at ST 1400m on 13 June that was separated by only a short head, and a third at HV 1650m in July. The consistency across those runs underpins the top ranking. 旌採 is ranked second and has a strong ST 1600m profile in the sample — a win on 1 July, second on 26 April, and a narrow neck margin in fourth on 24 May — all at this course and distance. The two leading horses present the clearest same-trip evidence in the field. 同樣世界 sits third, with three supplied runs at ST 1600m in Class 4, finishing fifth, seventh and fifth, with margins of two lengths and beyond; the model still gives a meaningful score. 富裕君子 is ranked fourth, bringing a second at HV 1800m on 16 September and a win at HV 1650m in June, but most supplied runs have been over longer trips; today's 1600m is a distance shift worth noting. 金鑽精靈 is fifth and has won twice at ST 1600m in the sample — May and April — but the latest supplied run on 7 June ended sixth. 天蓬貓, ranked sixth from draw 14, showed two placed efforts at ST 1600m and ST 1800m in the sample, including a second neck at ST 1800m in June. The slow pace forecast may suit horses that can settle and apply pressure late, a consideration for how the race unfolds from the front.

Race 9

turf 1200m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 10

turf 1400m ⚖ Even pace · Pressure 0.53 racecard ↗
Likely an even, honest paceEarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 9 星月飛雲潘頓 · 韋達 · Dr6 Midfield
Strong
🔒
2 3 一世美麗艾兆禮 · 蔡約翰 · Dr5 Midfield
Strong
🔒
3 7 潮州精神巴度 · 文家良 · Dr9 Closer
Strong
🔒
4 10 做好自己黃寶妮 (-7) · 呂健威 · Dr7 Front-runner
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 10 is a turf 1400m over 14 runners, with a neutral pace forecast and a wide-open model shape. 星月飛雲 leads the rankings from draw 6 and has been running at ST 1200m recently, with the most recent run on 4 October — a third at ST 1000m — the only supplied effort within two weeks of today. The sample also contains a third at ST 1200m in May. The step up to 1400m today is a distance shift. 一世美麗 is ranked second from draw 5, with four of the last five supplied runs directly at ST 1400m: placings of third in May and April, seventh in June and June, and a fourth at ST 1200m in September. The two thirds at ST 1400m provide the most relevant same-trip evidence among the ranked horses. 潮州精神 holds third ranking from draw 9, and has four supplied runs at ST 1400m, with the most recent on 13 September producing a third, the best finish in the sample at this trip. Earlier runs in June and April were further back. 做好自己 sits fourth from draw 7 and carries a 7-pound claim; the supplied five runs are mostly at HV 1650m, with only one ST run — a fourth at ST 1400m on 27 June — providing direct course-and-distance reference. 泰坦 is ranked fifth from draw 4 with a 2-pound claim, and the sample includes a third at ST 1400m on 12 July; subsequent runs at ST 1200m in June and May were less competitive. 咕嚕快跑 is sixth from draw 2, with two supplied runs both at ST 1200m — different from today's trip — finishing ninth and sixth. With a neutral pace and spread model scores, the ST 1400m placed efforts of 一世美麗 and 潮州精神 are among the more directly grounded points of comparison.

Race 11

turf 1200m 🔥 Fast pace · Pressure 0.69 racecard ↗
Likely fast early pace (many on-pace types)EarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 2 扶搖勢勁潘頓 · 姚本輝 · Dr5 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
2 6 興馳千里田泰安 · 呂健威 · Dr4 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
3 11 寶進梁家俊 · 巫偉傑 · Dr1 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
4 3 嘉應奇兵潘明輝 · 賀賢 · Dr10 Front-runner
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 11 is a turf 1200m with a fast pace forecast and a two-horse-fight model shape, though the supplied scores show three horses within a closely grouped band. 扶搖勢勁 heads the rankings from draw 5, with five supplied runs all at ST 1200m or HV 1200m in Class 2: a win on 4 July by one and a quarter lengths, a second on 20 May by three-quarters of a length, and a second by a nose on 12 April. The most recent run on 27 September ended seventh, two and three-quarter lengths behind. 興馳千里 is ranked second from draw 4, and on 27 September finished second — one length behind — in what appears to be the same race where 扶搖勢勁 ran seventh. The sample also includes a third at HV 1200m in July by a neck. Their recent results from the same race provide a direct point of contrast. 寶進 is third from draw 1, rated 77, and has won twice in the sample — ST 1200m on 6 September by half a length and HV 1200m on 24 June by half a length — both in Class 3; an eighth at ST 1200m in April is also noted. The model gives 寶進 a close to the top two, making this effectively a three-runner comparison despite the two_horse_fight label. 嘉應奇兵 is fourth from draw 10, with wins at ST 1400m on 1 July and ST 1200m on 31 May, both within the last five runs; today's 1200m matches the latter trip. 熾烈神駒 holds fifth from draw 3, with a win at ST 1200m on 6 May and three other placed efforts in the sample, all at the same course and distance. 競駿輝煌 is sixth from draw 8, rated 91 — the highest rating in the field — but the last five supplied runs show finishes of eighth, fifth, third, sixth and twelfth in Class 2, with the most recent on 27 September ending eighth. The fast pace forecast and the concentration of front-running tendencies make early positioning a key tactical question in this sprint.

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