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01-10-2026 · ST (Sha Tin) · Turf Model models/HKJC-ML_XGB_NOODDS_REG_v2.bin

Race 1

turf 1200m ⚖ Even pace · Pressure 0.46 racecard ↗
Likely an even, honest paceEarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 6 魅力知福潘頓 · 蔡約翰 · Dr13 Midfield
Strong
🔒
2 2 靖哥哥奧爾民 · 甘敏斯 · Dr2 Closer
Strong
🔒
3 1 新力驕艾兆禮 · 蘇偉賢 · Dr4 Closer
Strong
🔒
4 7 萬里雲潘明輝 · 賀賢 · Dr3 Midfield
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 1 is a turf sprint over 1200 metres at Sha Tin, with a neutral pace forecast. 魅力知福 heads the rankings with a of 0.35, drawn wide in gate 13. The form sample shows a win at ST 1200m on 4 July in good-to-sticky ground, making that the most directly relevant evidence for today's conditions and trip. The most recent run at HV 1200m on 9 September produced a seventh, though the venue and going differed. 靖哥哥 is ranked second with a of 0.30, drawn gate 2. The supplied last-five sample is predominantly HV-based; the one ST run on 27 June produced a ninth in Class 4. 新力驕 sits third with 0.27 from gate 4, and is the horse with the most consistent ST 1200m presence in the sample — finishes include a second on 27 June and a third on 3 May, all at this course and distance. 萬里雲 is fourth ( 0.21, gate 3); a withdrawal at ST 1200m in June interrupts the recent record, and the July run on wet-fast ground returned a seventh. 爆熱 is fifth-ranked ( 0.21, gate 11) with an active ST 1200m profile: a win on 1 April, consecutive seconds on 19 April and 6 May, and a third on 4 July in wet-fast conditions. 傳承效應 ranks sixth ( 0.18, gate 9); the supplied sample is mostly HV-based with one ST run over 1400m on 13 September, which was outside today's distance. The model rates this a wide-open race, and the neutral pace does not point to a clear positional bias.

Race 2

turf 1600m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 3

turf 1000m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 4

turf 1400m ⚖ Even pace · Pressure 0.54 racecard ↗
Likely an even, honest paceEarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 7 實力加奧爾民 · 賀賢 · Dr4 Midfield
Strong
🔒
2 10 遨遊波士袁幸堯 (-7) · 羅富全 · Dr1 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
3 12 馬上盈潘明輝 · 游達榮 · Dr12 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
4 9 總統輝煌田泰安 · 沈集成 · Dr10 Midfield
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 4 is a turf race over 1400 metres at Sha Tin with a neutral pace forecast. 實力加 tops the model at 0.35 from gate 4. The supplied last-five sample is entirely at ST 1400m and ST 1200m — three consecutive thirds at ST 1400m (including 6 September and 12 July) and a second on 17 May. Consistent placing at this trip underpins the top ranking. 遨遊波士 is second ( 0.21, gate 1, 7lb claimer), with three ST 1400m runs in the sample returning two thirds (12 July and 13 June), one of which was by only a neck. 馬上盈 is third-ranked ( 0.19, gate 12). The recent sample includes a second at ST 1400m on 24 May, though subsequent runs at ST 1400m in July and HV 1650m in September returned worse results. 總統輝煌 is fourth ( 0.16, gate 10) with four supplied ST 1400m runs; a fourth on 3 May is the best of them, and the other three were double-figure finishes, suggesting inconsistency in this sample. 銀騎士 ranks fifth ( 0.15, gate 2) with only three supplied runs, all at shorter distances — ST 1000m and ST 1200m in Griffin-class races — so today's 1400m trip is a step up from the supplied sample. 豐功偉績 is sixth ( 0.14, gate 8), with a win at ST 1400m Class 4 on 12 April (by a head) but followed by four consecutive double-figure or near-double-figure finishes at the same trip. The model rates this a wide-open race, and the neutral pace does not point to a strong positional advantage.

Race 5

turf 1000m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 6

turf 1800m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 7

turf 1200m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 8

turf 1200m 🐢 Slow pace · Pressure 0.44 racecard ↗
Likely slow early pace (few on-pace types)EarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 1 全能勇士潘頓 · 呂健威 · Dr11 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
2 5 八玲瓏田泰安 · 蔡約翰 · Dr1 Midfield
Strong
🔒
3 4 明德輝煌艾道拿 · 姚本輝 · Dr4 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
4 8 天天更好巴度 · 羅富全 · Dr2 Midfield
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 8, turf, 1200m, a slow pace forecast with fewer front-running types expected. The model shape is two_horse_fight, with 全能勇士 and 八玲瓏 posting the two highest scores at 0.60 and 0.54 respectively. 全能勇士 has three sampled Griffin runs: a win at Sha Tin 1200m on 4 July, then a second by a short head on 31 May, and a fifth at 1000m in May. The July win is the clearest form reference for open company. 八玲瓏 has only one run in the sample, a third at Sha Tin 1200m Class 4 on 13 September, stepping into open company from a placing. The slow pace forecast may suit horses with a hold-up style, though drawing gate 1 could offer options. 明德輝煌 is ranked third with a of 0.47, close to 八玲瓏, having finished second twice at Sha Tin 1200m Class 4 in September and June. Those consecutive seconds give it a legitimate claims on a top-three finish. 天天更好 is ranked fourth; the sample includes two seconds and a third at Sha Tin 1200m, with the most recent run a fifth on 13 September. 閃電奇駿 ranks fifth, the last four sampled runs producing finishes of seventh, sixth, twelfth and seventh. 擅搏 is sixth with two sampled runs, a fifth and a ninth. The model identifies 全能勇士 and 八玲瓏 as the central contest, but 明德輝煌's back-to-back seconds leave the model's third rank well supported.

Race 9

turf 1400m
HorseSignalsResult
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Race 10

turf 1400m ⚖ Even pace · Pressure 0.47 racecard ↗
Likely an even, honest paceEarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 7 巴閉精潘頓 · 呂健威 · Dr4 Midfield
Strong
🔒
2 14 八仟好運艾兆禮 · 蔡約翰 · Dr5 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
3 4 非凡豪傑班德禮 · 巫偉傑 · Dr7 Closer
Strong
🔒
4 9 禾道豐何澤堯 · 方嘉柏 · Dr3 Midfield
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 10, turf, 1400m, neutral pace expected across a 14-horse field. The model shape is clear_standout, with 巴閉精 posting the highest in the card at 0.68. The sampled record shows two consecutive wins at Sha Tin 1200m in May and June — Class 4 and Class 4 — followed by a second in Class 3 on 4 July, where the deficit was over five lengths. All four sampled runs are at 1200m; stepping up to 1400m today is a change in trip. 八仟好運 is ranked second with a of 0.52, and has four sampled runs at Sha Tin 1400m: a second by three-quarters of a length on 6 September, a win on 27 June, another second on 7 June, and a third on 17 May. That concentration of same-trip form is directly relevant and makes 八仟好運 a genuine second choice. 非凡豪傑 is third; the most recent run was a second by a short head at Sha Tin 1400m Class 3 on 6 September, the closest in recent form. 禾道豐 is ranked fourth, with a win at Sha Tin 1200m on 31 May and a third at Sha Tin 1400m in March. The 1400m sample is limited to one run but the horse has placed at the trip. 友瑩亮 is fifth, rated 72 and carrying a seven-pound claim; the last five runs are all at 1400m, including a second on 13 September, though the class was C3 throughout. 歡欣神駒 is sixth with no supplied form figures. The contrast between 巴閉精's clear model lead and 八仟好運's strong same-trip record at 1400m is the central comparison.

Race 11

turf 1200m 🔥 Fast pace · Pressure 0.73 racecard ↗
Likely fast early pace (many on-pace types)EarlyClosers
HorseSignalsResult
1 11 勇者為皇潘頓 · 沈集成 · Dr9 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
2 9 星運少爵班德禮 · 方嘉柏 · Dr3 Midfield
Strong
🔒
3 10 利高八斗潘明輝 · 姚本輝 · Dr2 Front-runner
Strong
🔒
4 6 超和平梁家俊 · 巫偉傑 · Dr1 Front-runner
Strong
🔒

Model Narrative

Race 11, turf, 1200m, a fast pace forecast with many front-running types expected. 勇者為皇 heads the model at of 0.52, though the supplied form shows four consecutive poor runs — finishes of eighth, eighth, fifth and sixth — before a Class 4 win at Sha Tin 1200m in January. The recent trend is worth noting alongside the top ranking. 星運少爵 is second with two third-place finishes in the latest sample, one at Sha Tin and one at Happy Valley Class 3 1200m, plus two prior wins at Happy Valley Class 4. 利高八斗 sits third with a of 0.43 — level with 星運少爵 — and has strong same-trip form: a win at Sha Tin 1200m Class 4 on 4 July, followed by three consecutive seconds in the same course and distance. That pattern of consistent placing at Sha Tin 1200m is directly relevant today. 超和平 is fourth with two wins in the last three sampled runs, both at Sha Tin 1200m Class 4 — in June and March — separated by an eighth in April. The fast pace forecast may present a tactical challenge if front-runners take heavy early pressure. 辣得準 is ranked fifth, with a most recent win at Sha Tin 1200m Class 4 on 6 September, though the three prior runs were in Class 3 with modest results. 金金小子 is sixth, rated 70 and the highest-rated in the field, with a second at Sha Tin 1200m Class 3 in July as the best recent result. The closely bunched scores from second through fifth — 0.43 to 0.37 — reflect a genuinely open contest beneath the top-ranked 勇者為皇.

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